Is Merit Really the Standard?

Why do sports coaches with winning records get fired from their jobs?

Truthfully, I don’t know. I’m not inside those organizations, so I’m not aware of all the dynamics—leadership expectations, culture, politics, player buy-in, or the behind-the-scenes friction that never makes it to the press.

In a bottom-line business, my assumption is simple: if you replace a winning coach, the replacement is expected to come in and do better. Not just maintain success, but level up—win bigger, win faster, win when it matters most.

Sometimes the gamble works. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fired Tony Dungy and traded for Jon Gruden from the Raiders… and the wild part is both teams ended up playing each other in the Super Bowl.

Other times, it doesn’t. The Chargers went 14–2, lost in the playoffs, and still fired Marty Schottenheimer. Norv Turner went 11–5 the next year. The Bears fired Lovie Smith after going 10–6, and his replacement, Marc Trestman, went 8–8 and was fired the following year. The Broncos fired John Fox, and then Gary Kubiak came in and won a Super Bowl.

But here’s where this gets bigger than football.

Because we see this same pattern in organizations outside of sports all the time. Have you ever watched a highly experienced, qualified person get passed over for a promotion… only for the person who steps into the role to struggle, burn out, or disappear within a year?

And it makes you wonder: are we actually rewarding performance… or are we rewarding the illusion of performance?

Sometimes a leadership change isn’t about results—it’s about comfort. It’s about control. It’s about optics. It’s about someone wanting “their person” in the seat. And when that happens, performance becomes the public explanation, while the real reasons stay private.

Which leads to a harder question: are we hiding organizational deficits behind the illusion of performance?

Because if the system is broken, it’s easier to replace the leader than to admit the culture is unhealthy, expectations are unclear, or the organization doesn’t actually know what it values.

The Buffalo Bills fired Sean McDermott after multiple division titles and playoff wins, so it isn’t as simple as the best performance wins. It’s nuanced, and we don’t discuss nuance too much.

So let’s talk about it: when you’ve seen high performers get replaced or passed over, what do you think was really happening—performance issues… or deeper organizational issues nobody wanted to name?